The format that worked for your client last year might already be dying.

It's not that it was bad but the market might have caught up. Supply exceeded demand, the algorithm found better options and now you're producing content that would have crushed 18 months ago but barely moves today.

Source: The concept of format seasons comes from Kallaway's appearance on Open Residency. Kallaway runs one of the most analytically-rigorous marketing YouTube channels, tracking content performance patterns across platforms. Open Residency is a podcast that goes deep on content creation and audience building.

This isn't random. Platforms go through predictable format seasons, and understanding where you are in the cycle determines whether your content strategy makes sense.

How Format Seasons Work

A new platform or feature launches. Supply of content is low and demand for content is high (the algorithm needs to fill feeds), so almost any reasonably competent content gets distributed.

Season 1: The Land Grab

Early creators discover what works and simple formats dominate because they're easy to produce at volume. "5 tips for X" videos, quick tutorials, and basic listicles. The platforms reward consistency because they need content.

Teams that show up consistently during this phase grow fast, even with mediocre content. The arbitrage is effort, not quality.

Season 2: Quality Competition

Supply catches up to demand and the simple formats are saturated. Standing out requires more differentiated angles, higher production value, or more original insights.

Case study formats tend to emerge here. "How X company did Y" is harder to copy than generic tips, and you're borrowing credibility from specific examples while adding your own analysis.

Season 3: Narrative Dominance

Even differentiated formats become saturated and the next moat is content that literally cannot be replicated: personal stories, lived experiences, and one-of-one perspectives.

"I spent 3 years building this and here's what I learned" isn't something anyone else can make. The experience is unique and the format is defensible.

We're in Season 3 now for most major platforms.

The Saturation Math

Formats die when supply overwhelms demand.

If there are 10 creators making "Instagram growth tips" videos and an audience of 1 million people interested in Instagram growth, each creator has a theoretical reach of 100,000 people.

When there are 10,000 creators making the same content, the theoretical reach drops to 100 per creator. The algorithm has too many options and only the absolute best get distribution.

This isn't gradual and format death tends to happen faster than teams expect. One quarter your listicle content is performing well and the next quarter it's getting 20% of the views for the same effort.

The signal that a format is dying: performance declines even as quality stays constant. You're doing the same work, maybe even better work, and results are dropping. That's market saturation, not execution failure.

Why Agencies Need to Track This

If you're producing content for clients, format seasons directly impact your ability to deliver results.

A client comes in wanting the same content strategy that worked for their competitor two years ago. You execute it well but results are disappointing. The client is frustrated and you're confused because the work was solid.

It's not that the execution was bad, it's that the format reached saturation between when the competitor did it and when you attempted it.

Agencies need to track format performance at the market level, not just the client level. Is this format still working for other creators in this space? What's the supply/demand balance? Are we entering late, or is there still room?

This is intelligence work and it requires watching what's happening across the platform, not just inside client accounts.

Recognizing Season Shifts

Signs you're entering a new season:

Declining performance with consistent quality. The clearest signal. Same effort, same quality, worse results.

Increased competition visibility. More creators doing the same format in your niche. More supply, same demand.

Platform algorithm changes that favor new behaviors. Platforms adjust to surface novel content, and if the algorithm is explicitly deprioritizing a format, it's probably saturated.

Rising production requirements for the same results. Early seasons reward showing up and late seasons require exceptional execution to get noticed.

New creators outperforming established ones with different approaches. If unknown accounts are suddenly growing faster than established players, they've probably found a new format window.

When you see these signals, it's time to start testing alternative formats. Not abandoning what works overnight, but building optionality.

The Personal Narrative Advantage

Personal narrative content has a unique characteristic: it's more resistant to saturation than other formats.

A listicle about productivity can be made by anyone and a case study about how a company grew can be made by anyone with research skills. But a story about your specific experience building your specific company? Only you can make that.

This is why narrative formats are winning in Season 3. The supply constraint is built into the format itself and there's exactly one creator who can tell each story.

For agencies, this changes the ideation process. Instead of "what topics should we cover?" the question becomes "what experiences does this client have that no one else has?"

The stories are always there, they just require more extraction work than topics do.

Platform-Specific Timing

Different platforms are in different seasons at any given time.

YouTube long-form is in Season 3 where narrative content dominates and pure tutorial content is saturated.

YouTube Shorts is somewhere between Season 1 and Season 2. Still relatively early with more format flexibility, but catching up quickly.

TikTok hit Season 3 faster than most platforms and it's already dominated by personality-driven narrative content.

LinkedIn video is arguably still in Season 1 with low supply and high distribution for consistent content.

These positions shift over time and the point is that "what format works" depends on which platform you're discussing and when you're discussing it.

Advising Clients on Format Shifts

This is where agency value lives: helping clients navigate format transitions before competitors do.

The conversation sounds like this:

"The listicle format that worked when you started is entering saturation. We're seeing declining performance industry-wide, not just for your account. The next window is narrative-driven content built on your specific experiences. That requires different ideation and production approaches. Here's what that looks like."

This positions you as strategic advisor, not just execution vendor. You're bringing market intelligence the client doesn't have.

The alternative is waiting until performance drops, scrambling to figure out why, and looking like you don't know what you're doing. Proactive format strategy beats reactive troubleshooting every time.

What Comes After Season 3?

This is speculation, but here's the pattern.

Season 4 is probably "production as differentiator." When everyone is doing personal narrative content, the next competitive layer is doing it better with higher production value, more sophisticated editing, and documentary-level quality for what used to be casual content.

We're already seeing hints of this and the best narrative content creators are investing in production in ways that weren't required two years ago.

After that, probably platform fragmentation. The major platforms become so saturated that the opportunity shifts to emerging platforms with Season 1 dynamics, and then the cycle repeats.

The underlying principle stays constant: format value is determined by supply and demand. Scarcity creates opportunity and saturation kills it. Understanding where you are in the cycle matters more than any specific format choice.

The Bottom Line

Content strategy isn't just about what to make but when to make it relative to the market.

A format that's early in its cycle rewards showing up and a format that's late in its cycle punishes everyone except the exceptional. Most teams don't track which phase their formats are in, which is why they're confused when performance shifts.

Agencies that track format seasons can advise clients proactively: when to ride a format, when to experiment with new ones, and when to abandon what's no longer working.

That's the job. Not just making content, but making the right content for where the market is right now.